A within-layer first-pass signature in the remaining_K 64–95 layer
An observational follow-up. Descriptive analysis only — no mechanism, causality, or proof is claimed.
A companion study (Paper 2) localized a difference signal between observed accelerated
Collatz trajectories and a structureless null model on a remaining_K chain, and
identified its cleanest sequence-level carrier as the A signature at
64–95 → 32–63. This paper does not introduce a new claim. It re-reads the same
sampled universe to ask where in a trajectory the A signature appears, and what
distinguishes the trajectories that realize it from the near-neighbours that do not.
Lineage. A prior study (finite-block diagnostics) established
a negative result: the actual−iid discrepancy on Collatz escape words is detectable but is not
generated by finite-block constructions, leaving a residual indexed by bridge shape and
parity in the deep tail. Paper 1 (Δ-localization)
showed the remaining_K boundary coordinate binds that discrepancy most sharply; Paper 2
(band signatures) found its cleanest sequence-level carrier, the
A signature. This paper continues that line into the trajectory's time axis. The explicit link back
to the diagnostics residual is §9.
We report four descriptive findings. (1) A is not an entry signature: among trajectories
that ever satisfy it, A coincides exactly with the first 64–95 → 32–63 pass in every
observed case. (2) The dominant non-A pass that shares A's local k=1 / 1,1,1 face
differs only by entry route (an inflow analogue); after the pass, the two follow an almost
identical coarse downstream path. (3) Among same-route (START_IN_LAYER) passes, what
separates A from its non-A siblings is not the formation of the all-1 context but its
maintenance up to the pass. (4) A small set of trajectories form the all-1 context and
then lose it before passing; in this sample the loss is a localized interruption of the
k=1 run. We give an external-benchmark overlay against Rozier–Terracol Appendix C in
an appendix. Throughout we use only observational language.
- Scope and stance
- Dataset and definitions
- The boundary into 64–95
- First-pass structure inside 64–95
- A_start and A_inflow
- Other_start
- Formation and maintenance of the all-1 context
- Lost111 micro-cases
- Connection to the finite-block diagnostics study
- Interpretation boundaries
- Conclusion
- Appendix A — Rozier–Terracol overlay
- Appendix B — Output file index
1. Scope and stance
The object of study is the same difference signal used in Paper 2, written informally
actual − iid: the contrast between observed accelerated Collatz trajectories
("actual") and a surrogate ("iid word") in which the per-step valuation word is resampled
independently from a fixed marginal. Paper 2 established that this signal is sharply localized on
the remaining_K coordinate and that its cleanest carrier is the A signature. The
present paper takes the A signature as given and asks only descriptive questions about
its placement and its near-neighbourhood.
2. Dataset and definitions
The analysis universe is the same sampled ensemble of long accelerated Collatz words as the
companion studies, in the scanner mode original_n_strict. All counts below are
reproduced from that mode unless stated otherwise. The ensemble is sampled, not exhaustively
enumerated (see §9).
2.1 Coordinate
For an odd integer trajectory under the accelerated Collatz map, let
xt+1 = (3xt+1)/2kt with
kt = v2(3xt+1), and let
w = (k0, …, kτ−1) be the valuation word. With total mass
Kτ = Σ kt, the reported coordinate is the remaining mass before
step t,
64–95 (64 ≤ R < 96) and 32–63 (32 ≤ R < 64).
A transition A → B occurs at position t when Rt
is in A and Rt+1 is in B.
2.2 Local descriptors
transition_k— the stepktat the transition; in exact teststransition_k=1meanskt=1exactly.pre_k_window_3—(kt−2, kt−1, kt); the value1,1,1is the all-1 local face we abbreviate pre111.local_window_4— the rolling length-4 valuation window near the transition.entry_route— how the word occupies the64–95layer at the transition.
START_IN_LAYER means the word starts inside the relevant
remaining_K layer at that occurrence. It does not mean "first
arrival into the layer." The alternative route considered here is
INFLOW_FROM_96-127, i.e. entering 64–95 from the band above.
2.3 Signature hierarchy
We keep the original A signature unchanged and call it A_start. We name a near-neighbour and an umbrella, but the umbrella is descriptive only.
A_all1_pass 64-95 -> 32-63, transition_k=1, pre_k_window_3 = 1,1,1
├─ A_start + entry_route = START_IN_LAYER (= the original A signature)
└─ A_inflow + entry_route = INFLOW_FROM_96-127 (near-A; different route)
Other_start START_IN_LAYER first pass that is NOT A_start
Where the text says "A" without qualification, it means A_start. A_inflow
is treated as a separate near-A pass face, not as a relabelling of A_start.
3. The boundary into 64–95
Of the 550 trajectories in the universe, twelve never enter the 64–95 layer at all
(group G0); the remaining 538 do enter it (G1). Every trajectory in
G1 eventually performs a 64–95 → 32–63 pass.
| Group | Count | Description |
|---|---|---|
G0 | 12 | never enters 64–95 |
G1 | 538 | enters 64–95; all eventually pass to 32–63 |
| Total | 550 | sampled universe |
The twelve G0 trajectories — 7, 9, 18, 19, 25, 91, 121, 242, 243, 484, 485, 486
— are sometimes tempting to read as "near-A failures." The data does not support that reading.
None reaches 64–95, so each scores 0/4 on the A conditions for the trivial
reason that the source band is never occupied. Under the requested signature clustering they are
heterogeneous (every full profile is a singleton); they collapse to eight odd cores. We therefore
describe them as boundary non-entrants / low-K cases, set aside from the
A neighbourhood rather than placed at its edge.
4. First-pass structure inside 64–95
A does not appear at the first 64–95 event. The first event inside the layer is almost
always a 64–95 → 64–95 stay, and no trajectory's first entry event is A-like. Instead,
among the 365 trajectories that satisfy A anywhere, A coincides with the first
64–95 → 32–63 pass in all 365 cases (first_A_index = first_pass_index,
with none before and none after). In this scanner, A is therefore a within-layer first-pass
signature, not an entry signature.
Waiting time inside the layer (events from first entry to first pass) is informative but non-monotone. The A-hit rate rises into a peak and then falls:
| Wait bucket | Count | A-hit rate | median k=1 run | pre111 share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
wait_0 | 5 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.000 |
wait_1 | 9 | 0.000 | 1.0 | 0.000 |
wait_2 | 18 | 0.056 | 1.5 | 0.056 |
wait_3_5 | 65 | 0.738 | 3.0 | 0.738 |
wait_6_10 | 145 | 0.945 | 4.0 | 0.952 |
wait_11_plus | 296 | 0.605 | 4.0 | 0.990 |
Waiting time alone does not describe A cleanly: the longest-wait stratum has the highest pre111
share yet a lower A-hit rate than the mid-wait stratum. Local features carry additional
separation. Two thresholds are nearly absorbing in this sample: every A-hit row has a
k=1 run of length ≥ 3 and has pre111 before the pass (outside-threshold A-hit rate
0.000 in both cases), and first-pass START_IN_LAYER alone lifts the
A-hit rate to 0.847. We read A as a within-layer first-pass face that depends on the
wait together with the local all-1 context, not on the wait by itself.
5. A_start and A_inflow
Classifying each G1 trajectory by its first-pass face gives four groups that partition
the 538:
| Class | Count | First-pass face |
|---|---|---|
A_start | 365 | START_IN_LAYER / k=1 / pre111 |
A_inflow | 104 | INFLOW_FROM_96-127 / k=1 / pre111 |
Other_start | 66 | START_IN_LAYER, not A_start |
Other_inflow | 3 | INFLOW_FROM_96-127, not A_inflow |
A_start and A_inflow share the same local face and differ only by entry
route. After the first pass their coarse downstream paths are nearly identical: in both classes the
top next-3 and next-5 transition sequences are entirely 32–63 → 32–63 stays and cover
the whole class. The median time to the next boundary 32–63 → 16–31 is 23 events for
both, and the median time below 16 is 30 for both. The next boundary even wears the same face in
both classes:
32-63 -> 16-31 INFLOW_FROM_64-95 / transition_k=3 / pre_k_window_3 = 1,1,3+
The two are not identical on the integer side: A_inflow skews toward larger and longer
trajectories (higher mean/median log2(n), word length, and total_K).
The descriptive summary is that A_inflow is the same all-1 pass face reached by a
different upstream route, not a separate downstream destiny. We keep it under the
A_all1_pass umbrella as a near-A face, distinct from A_start by route and
provenance.
6. Other_start
Restricting to START_IN_LAYER first passes (431 rows = 365 A_start + 66
Other_start) isolates the cleanest comparison: same entry route, A versus not-A. The
66 Other_start rows are not random residue. The dominant deformation keeps the route
and k=1 but breaks the all-1 pre-window:
| Signature | Count |
|---|---|
1 | 3+,1,1 | 28 |
5 | 2,3+,3+ | 7 |
3 | 2,2,3+ | 5 |
1 | 3+,1 | 4 |
1 | 2,3+,1 | 4 |
remaining cells low-count; see startface_step2_other_start_signature_counts.csv | |
All 66 fail the pass-time all-1 context (none has pre111, the length-5 suffix
1,1,1, or 1,1,1,1 in local_window_4 at the pass); 20 also
fail transition_k=1. Yet downstream they behave much like A_start: their
top next-5 sequence is again all 32–63 → 32–63 stays, and the median time to
32–63 → 16–31 is 23, identical to A_start. Other_start is
therefore best treated as a separate START_IN_LAYER pass-face family —
a dominant near-A deformation plus a low-count heterogeneous tail — that shares A's downstream
corridor but not its pass-time face. The separator lives at the pass, in the local all-1 context.
7. Formation and maintenance of the all-1 context
Section 6 locates the separator at the pass; this section follows the all-1 context across the
interval from first 64–95 entry to first pass, tracking the first appearance of
1, 11, 111, and 1111 and whether each survives
to the pass.
The distinction is not the formation of the all-1 context but its maintenance:
A-realizing trajectories maintain 111 to the pass without exception, while every
Other_start trajectory either never develops 111 or develops it and then
loses it. The maintained interval is short: the median distance from 111 formation to
the pass is one event, so the observation is better phrased as "the all-1 context is intact at the
pass" than "the all-1 context is held for a long time."
START_IN_LAYER trajectories, all A_start trajectories maintain the all-1 context
until the first pass, whereas Other_start trajectories either never develop the all-1 context or
lose it before the pass.
8. Lost111 micro-cases
The eight Other_start trajectories that form 111 and then lose it are the
only group with an explicit "made it, then lost it" story, so we read them at the event level and
pair each with a matched A_start trajectory (matched on odd core, log2(n),
total_K, first-pass wait, and word length; mean differences are small — e.g.
|log2(n)| 0.013, |total_K| 0.000).
| Break | Count |
|---|---|
111 → 1,1,3+ | 5 |
111 → 1,1,2 | 3 |
Every break is the same kind of event: the final 1 is replaced by a larger
k (a 2 or a 3+), interrupting the k=1 run. But
the break is not at the doorstep: the median distance from break to pass is 6 events, so these are
not last-instant slips. Structurally, only 1/8 would have satisfied A_start
had 111 been maintained; the other seven also miss the pass-time transition_k=1.
We therefore decline to call all eight "near-A failures" and instead describe them as a
111-maintenance-failure micro-subset of Other_start. The
representative trajectory cards (e.g. odd cores 639, 2273, 1515) are in
lost111_step7_trajectory_cards.md.
9. Connection to the finite-block diagnostics study
This paper is the trajectory-time end of a four-step program that began with a negative result. It is worth stating the link explicitly, because the present finding gives a concrete face to the object that earlier study left open.
9.1 What the diagnostics study closed
The finite-block diagnostics study compared the observed finite-integer escape-word measure against
an iid 2-adic reference and asked whether finite-block statistics could generate the
difference. Its verdicts were consistent and one-directional: the two diagnostic tests reached class
B — the block score separates actual from iid and the separation grows
with block length (the +score AUC rises from 0.5363 at L=3 to 0.5643 at
L=6) — while the two generative tests reached class C:
finite-block reweighting overcorrects and a regularized maximum-entropy block projection does no
better than the damped baseline. No test reached A. What survived every test was a reproducible
state-distribution residual indexed by bridge shape and parity (bridge coefficient
≈ 1.10–1.13, parity ≈ 0.37–0.44), most visible in the deep-tail focus state
late_growth | tail_64_95 | even. The closed claim was a boundary statement: along the
iid route, finite-block corrections detect the discrepancy but do not reconstruct it, and the
leftover structure is organized by a path-ordered feature.
9.2 Shared coordinates
The two studies are not loosely analogous; they sit on the same axis. The diagnostics focus cell
is the deep tail tail_64_95 of the valuation-depth coordinate x_K; Paper 1
showed the closely related remaining_K boundary-distance coordinate binds the same
actual − iid difference most sharply, with the deficit running through the
32–63 / 64–95 bands. The present paper lives inside that very region: the
64–95 layer studied here is the deep-tail band where the diagnostics residual was
largest. (The coordinates are related remaining-mass quantities, both binned at 64–95,
but are not defined identically; see §10.)
9.3 A path-ordered carrier for a path-ordered residual
The diagnostics residual was indexed by bridge shape — a path-ordered feature — and the
discussion there singled out "exchangeability breaking with order dependence" as the family the
data pointed to: order matters, and finite-block constructions that are largely order-light could
not generate the measure. The present finding is a concrete instance of exactly that kind of object.
Inside the 64–95 band, the carrier of the conditional excess is not a position-free
block statistic but a first-pass face anchored at the boundary, and the cleanest separator
of A from its same-route siblings is the maintenance of an all-1 run up to the pass
(§7), not its formation. Maintenance is intrinsically order-dependent: it is a statement about a
run surviving along the path to the boundary. A finite-block, order-light generator is the wrong
instrument to synthesize it — which is consistent with why finite blocks diagnosed but did not
generate the discrepancy.
9.4 What this does and does not settle
This is a point of contact, not an identification. Showing that A is a boundary-anchored,
maintenance-defined face does not generate the iid-reference discrepancy, recover the bridge/parity
residual numerically, or close any test that the diagnostics study left at B or C. The route split
here (START_IN_LAYER vs INFLOW_FROM_96-127, with A_inflow
skewing to larger log2(n)) and the A signature's integer-side parity/prefix shadow
reported in Paper 2 are suggestive neighbours of the diagnostics parity coordinate, but we
do not assert they are the same coordinate. The honest statement is that the present first-pass face
is one realization of the continuations the diagnostics study named — stopping boundaries and
order-dependent structure — and that it is consistent with, but does not resolve, that study's open
residual.
10. Interpretation boundaries
- The universe is a sampled, final-state-conditioned ensemble of long words, not an exhaustive enumeration of integers. All shares and rates are within-sample.
- All statements are about a scanner-defined coordinate system (
remaining_K,original_n_strictmode). A different mode (odd_core,odd_only) shifts counts; the appendix reports the dependence explicitly. - The cross-study link of §9 is a correspondence, not an identity. The diagnostics study's
x_Kvaluation-depth coordinate and theremaining_Kboundary coordinate used here are related remaining-mass quantities binned at64–95, but they are not defined identically, and the two studies use different reference measures (iid 2-adic word vs resampled valuation word) and universes. - The findings are concentration and correspondence statements. No generative mechanism for the A signature, and no causal role for the all-1 context, is claimed or implied.
- Low-count cells (e.g.
Other_inflow = 3, the long tail of Table 4, the eight Lost111 cases) are candidate structure, not load-bearing claims. - "Maintenance" is a descriptive label for "the all-1 context is present at the pass after being present earlier in the same layer occupancy"; it is not a dynamical assertion.
11. Conclusion
The picture that the observations support, stated descriptively:
A_startis a within-layer first-pass face: theSTART_IN_LAYERall-1 first pass out of64–95, coinciding with the first pass whenever it occurs.A_inflowis an inflow analogue of the same all-1 pass face, sharing the downstream corridor but reached by a different upstream route.Other_startis a separate START_IN_LAYER pass-face family; it shares A's downstream corridor but not its pass-time all-1 face.- The twelve no-transition trajectories are boundary non-entrants, set aside from the A neighbourhood.
- The cleanest observational separator of
A_startfrom its same-route siblings is the maintenance of the all-1 context to the pass, not its first formation. - Read against the prior finite-block diagnostics study, this maintenance-defined, boundary-anchored face is a concrete path-ordered carrier in the same deep-tail band where that study's bridge/parity residual was largest — a point of contact with its open residual, not a resolution of it (§9).
Appendix A — Rozier–Terracol overlay
As an external benchmark only, we overlay the Rozier–Terracol Appendix C acyclic paradoxical
starting integers (arXiv:2502.00948) onto the remaining_K coordinate and the A
signature. Their notion of "paradoxical" — overshoot of the initial value past the stopping time —
is defined differently from the mass-deficit / conditional-excess configuration studied here, so
this is a correspondence check, not a claim that the two notions coincide.
From 593 Appendix C occurrences (550 distinct starting integers), the full A signature is hit by
365/550 = 0.664 under original_n_strict and 377/550 = 0.685 under odd_core
mapping; the broader 64–95 → 32–63 corridor is hit by ~0.97. A robustness recheck
(extraction audit, mapping-mode comparison, strict-event definitions, baselines, negative controls)
returns the verdict partially robust: the strict A-event share stays high
under both mappings, while random same-range negative controls land far lower (full-A shares around
0.17–0.21).
| Set | Full-A share | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Rozier–Terracol App. C | 0.664 | benchmark |
| random same-count | 0.218 | negative control |
| random same-size range | 0.205 | negative control |
| consecutive from min | 0.204 | negative control |
| odd random same range | 0.175 | negative control |
Two caveats are recorded rather than hidden. First, the overlap depends on mapping Rozier–Terracol
integers through their odd cores into the odd-accelerated coordinate, while ordinary stopping
coordinates are computed on the original integer. Second, the most strongly enriched matched
baselines (e.g. residue/prefix matching) are the supported ones; log2-matched baselines
have no actual support because the benchmark integers sit below the sampled actual universe. A
non-hit taxonomy (which benchmark integers miss strict A, and why) is given in
rozier_nonhit_classification.md; most non-hits still traverse the broad corridor but
miss strict A by route or local k-context. This material supports an appendix-level
benchmark note only.
Appendix B — Output file index
Primary reports underlying each section. Per-trajectory CSVs are referenced inline above.
| Section | Report |
|---|---|
| §3 boundary | no_64_95_to_32_63_report.md, entry_64_95_boundary_report.md |
| §4 first-pass / wait | joint_wait_feature_report.md |
| §5 A_start vs A_inflow | postpass_Astart_Ainflow_report.md |
| §6 Other_start | startface_Astart_Otherstart_report.md |
| §7 all-1 formation | all1_formation_report.md |
| §8 Lost111 | lost111_microcase_report.md, lost111_step7_trajectory_cards.md |
| §6 carrier (Paper 2) | paradoxical_64_95_deep_dive.md, paradoxical_sequence_report.md |
| App. A overlay | rozier_overlay_report.md, rozier_overlay_recheck_report.md, rozier_A_occurrence_neighborhood_report.md, rozier_nonhit_classification.md |
Observational follow-up paper. No mechanism, causality, or proof is claimed.