Exploration memo

Co-Change Bundle Exploration

B004 Dissection, Cross-Basin Census, and Bundle Atlas

A finite-data exploration of which recorded Collatz features change together—and whether recurring bundle labels identify stable observational units.

01What This Explores

The memo gathers three earlier passes into one note. Nothing here is a conclusion: it records what was observed about which feature flags move together, and keeps the open questions visible rather than closing them.

Stage 1

B004 Dissection

A stand-alone look at basin B004: its arrow rows, the exact co-change bundle attached to each row, and pairwise counts of how often two features changed together across the side observations.

The pass keeps B004's observed complexity intact instead of compressing it into a representative arrow.

Stage 2

Cross-Basin Census

A comparison of B001 / B002 / B003 / B004 done only through feature co-change: which flags move together inside the same distinct arrow row. Counts are distinct arrow-row counts, not observation weights.

The census assigns no cause. It records which flags co-change and nothing further.

Stage 3

Bundle Atlas

A check of whether the co-change bundles that showed up are stable units or internally diverse, by measuring each exact bundle against its own delta patterns and source faces.

The unresolved point: whether any bundle can stand alone without keeping the arrow/state evidence beside it.

02Dataset at a Glance

Census size, counted as distinct arrow rows per basin.

B001
7
distinct arrow rows
B002
6
distinct arrow rows
B003 · witness
2
distinct arrow rows
B004
7
distinct arrow rows
22distinct arrow rows in total across the four basins
0single-feature-only rows: no arrow row changed a single feature alone

B001 and B004 are the primary basins. B002 and B003 were added as a small comparison check in the same format. B003 is small enough to act as a witness rather than a broad sample, and its two rows are read as a witness, not as a basis for generalisation.

03Main Observations

Frequency and stability are reported separately. A bundle that appears in many rows is treated as frequent; it is not thereby treated as a settled unit.

R-core band / remaining_K_before / remaining_K_after

Appears in 22 of 22 arrow rows across all four basins — yet it spreads across 20 distinct delta patterns. Observed everywhere, internally diverse.

rows with bundle22 / 22
distinct delta patterns20

Upper transition_k / exit_distance / front / residue16 / residue32

Appears in 18 of 22 arrow rows across all four basins, with 17 distinct delta patterns. A repeated co-change shape whose internal variation is not small.

rows with bundle18 / 22
distinct delta patterns17

all_features shared label

B001 and B004 share exactly one exact bundle string: all_features (every flag flips). The label is common to both basins.

But the source faces and the delta detail behind that label are not identical. See Shared Label, Different Rows.

Frequent ≠ stable

Each of the frequent bundles carries many delta patterns, so the labels are coarse where it matters. Bundle strings are useful search handles; on this pass they do not stand as independent, stable observational units.

Everything labelled here as frequent is treated as frequent, not as a settled unit.

04B004 Detail

B004 on its own has 12 pair rows and 24 side observations. Every observed −4 → −3 arrow lands at the same target, S014, so target concentration is total — while the source material stays spread across seven source states.

Source states — 7

  • S018
  • S019
  • S021
  • S023
  • S025
  • S028
  • S029

The miss side uses six of these source states; the control side uses one (S018). Variation remains on the source side.

Target — 1

  • S014

All observed arrows arrive here. Target concentration is total; source variation is not reduced.

Co-change is layered across the 24 side observations

Feature-change counts within B004's 24 side observations.
FeatureChanges inWhere
band24 / 24all side observations
remaining_K_before24 / 24all side observations
remaining_K_after24 / 24all side observations
transition_k12 / 24miss side only
exit_distance12 / 24miss side only
front12 / 24miss side only
residue1612 / 24miss side only
residue3212 / 24miss side only
chain_status6 / 24avoid → avoid_then_caught miss arrows

← 横にスクロールできます / scroll horizontally

The miss side and the control side therefore carry different co-change patterns.

Observation-weighted bundle sizes

{3: 12, 8: 6, 9: 6} — the arrows mostly move as bundles rather than as isolated single-feature edits.

size 3 (control shape)12 obs.
size 86 obs.
size 96 obs.

The largest single arrow is S018 → S014 on the control side, at 12 of 24 side observations. That size is a temptation to nominate one representative arrow, but the miss side still keeps six separate source states, so a single representative would discard observed variation. No reduction to one arrow was made.

05Shared Label, Different Rows

Shared bundle label ≠ identical underlying rows

B001 and B004 share exactly one exact bundle string, all_features — every flag flips. The deep check keeps the row-level evidence visible, and the rows behind the shared label differ.

B001 · 6 rows in the deep-check subset

Miss arrows

Land on a target face around R: 32 → 29, with residue transitions into 0 → 13 / 0 → 29.

B004 · 3 rows in the deep-check subset

Miss arrows

Land around R: 33 → 31, with residue transitions into 1 → 15 / 1 → 31.

Across the full atlas the all_features exact bundle (Bundle C) covers 12 rows with 12 distinct delta patterns and 11 distinct source faces. Same label, different source faces and deltas: the bundle string is shared, the underlying rows are not identical. So the answer to “is the shared all_features bundle really the same between B001 and B004” is that they match on the label only. The row-level evidence still differs and should stay visible — the source-face and delta-pattern columns are kept beside the bundle label, not in place of it. No B001 grouping was reused as a B004 grouping.

06Stable-Looking / Internally Diverse / Unresolved

Not much rises to “stable candidate” on this pass. The most defensible stable-looking statements are narrow and local.

Stable-looking observations

  • Within B004, band / remaining_K_before / remaining_K_after co-change in every observed side observation. That is stable inside B004, but broad rather than discriminating: the source states still separate on R values, k, exit distance, front, chain status, and residues.
  • No arrow row moves a single feature alone. This holds across all four basins as an observation. It says the edits are coupled; it does not say why.

Internally diverse patterns

  • The R-core bundle is frequent, not stable: 22 of 22 rows, yet 20 delta patterns.
  • The upper bundle is likewise internally diverse: 18 of 22 rows, 17 delta patterns. A repeated co-change shape whose internal variation is not small.
  • all_features is a coarse label: 12 rows, 12 delta patterns, 11 source faces. all_except_chain_status (Bundle A) sits at 6 rows with 5 delta patterns and is marked internally diverse.
  • The sparse bundles — the single R-only control row, and the two-row compact control shape — sit at 1–2 rows and behave as sparse rather than as repeated units.

Questions kept unresolved

  • Whether any bundle can stand alone as a next observation unit without keeping the arrow/state rows beside it. On this pass the answer leans no.
  • The coupled nature of the changes. front, residue16 and residue32 never move alone, and band moving in every arrow is too broad to describe the arrows by itself. Why the changes come bundled is left open.
  • The role of chain_status, which moves in only part of the miss set and separates otherwise similar arrows.
  • No arrow reduction, no reuse of a B001 grouping for B004, and no broad closure claim were made. Those are deliberately still open.

07Files

Input artifacts by analysis stage. Links are relative and resolve when the files sit in the same directory as this page.

B004 dissection

Cross-basin census

Bundle Atlas

Memo

08Scope Note

This page reports descriptive observations from a finite dataset. It does not claim a general mechanism or proof concerning the Collatz map.

All statements above are observations about the recorded arrow rows, feature flags, and co-change bundles in the attached files. Frequent bundles are reported as frequent, not as settled or stable units. The two B003 rows are treated as a witness and are not generalised. Bundle labels are kept together with the arrow/state rows they came from, and the open questions are left open.